you don't use nuclear strike as negotiating leverage against another nuclear power as it is a sure way to start a global all-out nuclear war. i don't quite see your logic here (unless you'd like to walk me through it step by step).

as for the 3-4 year prediction - what makes you think they have the resources to continue retching up the military at this point (given the on-going economic situation)? also, what can stop this prediction from coming to bear in your opinion (i.e. do you see a situation such that putin is still in power 4 years in the future and yet there are no nuclear strikes on the table?)